Q&A with Brian Crotty, EVP and GM of Dow Jones Energy

With the UK government proposing plans to introduce a sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) mandate, expected to take effect in January 2025, aviation’s global sustainability credentials have once again been thrust into the public domain.

Under this mandate, 10% of jet fuel utilised in UK flights must originate from sustainable sources by 2030 in a bid to significantly diminish carbon emissions within the aviation industry.

Brian Crotty is EVP and GM of Dow Jones Energy’s OPIS, which provides data, tools and expertise across the energy, chemicals and environmental commodities value chain. Both Brian and OPIS are passionate about providing trusted and transparent information to the global energy community, particularly as the world navigates the ongoing transition to sustainability. 

In this Q&A with Energy Digital, Brian talks about OPIS and how it and, more widely, Dow Jones, is helping shape the SAF landscape and ensure the sustainable future of aviation.

Q. In your own words, what is OPIS, what services does it provide and how does it contribute to the SAF space?

OPIS, a Dow Jones company, powers the global energy community with market-leading news, pricing, research, analytics and forecasting capabilities. Market participants across the entire value chain trust our insight and expertise in energy, chemicals and environmental commodities to make critical business decisions. 

We have provided clear, accurate pricing for the global fuel supply chain for more than 40 years and last year we expanded our coverage to include daily price assessments for SAF and renewable diesel. As the regulatory landscape becomes more complex in the aviation space, our customers — including refineries, suppliers, transportation firms and financial institutions — need access to transparent data and analytics for the fast-growing low-carbon fuels market.  

Q. How do you foresee SAF initiatives influencing global trends in aviation fuel production and consumption? / Could you elaborate on the current status and potential growth trajectory of the SAF market worldwide?

The SAF market is currently in its infancy, with global production totalling just 0.5 million metric tons in 2023. However, the replacement of conventional jet fuel with SAF is widely seen as the only short-term option to decarbonise the air travel industry and, therefore, this market is set to soar over the next few years. 

Production will continue to grow in 2024, with voluntary intakes driving demand ahead of mandatory blending mandates in the UK and EU starting in January 2025. These mandates will require aviation fuel to be blended with a minimum of 2% SAF, with this proportion increasing incrementally year on year. By 2030, when SAF will account for 6% of all fuel supplied, European demand is set to reach 4.2 million metric tons. 

With European production capacity seen growing to just 3.3 million metric tons per year, there is potential for US and Asian countries to export SAF to Europe, particularly if additional production projects are not initiated in the short term.

Neste, a leading Finnish SAF producer, is a good example of the industry's rapid expansion. In the first nine months of 2023, Neste sold nearly 100,000 metric tons of SAF. Expectations for 2024 are even more ambitious, with projected sales between 500,000 and 1 million metric tons, driven by the startup of its Singapore expansion project. 

This facility, set to become the world's largest SAF production plant, aims for an annual capacity of 1 million metric tons by 2026 — double the global SAF production of 2023.

With other solutions for decarbonising aviation still unproven, we expect to see more examples like Neste as airlines demand more production capacity to fulfil their needs to meet sustainability targets.

Longer term the aviation industry is testing hydrogen to power aircraft. But that technology will require major adjustments in on-plane storage and supply changes to accommodate zero-emission hydrogen, so it is likely a decade away.

Q. How do you anticipate the implementation of SAF mandates in the UK and EU impacting the broader energy landscape, particularly in terms of market dynamics, investment trends and technological advancements in renewable energy sources?

Not only will these mandates drive significant growth in SAF production and consumption, they will also reshape the wider energy landscape by promoting innovation, creating market competitiveness and advancing sustainability goals in the aviation sector and beyond. 

This initiative is expected to trigger several global changes across the aviation industry:

• Technological advancements: The surge in SAF demand spurred by mandates should drive innovations in technologies to produce SAF as producers look for new feedstocks. This is particularly relevant to companies looking at recycling waste products instead of using cereal crops
• Emission reduction: The widespread adoption of SAF is expected to yield substantial reductions in aviation emissions. As emissions fall, more pressure will be created on stakeholders across the industry to help reduce its environmental impact
• Global policy influence: The UK's approach in mandating SAF usage sets a precedent that may inspire other nations to implement similar policies aimed at reducing aviation emissions.

The SAF mandates put the UK and Europe as the leaders in this space from a regulatory perspective, but as we have seen with other parts of the renewable energy sector, other players can quickly scale up production if the demand is there. The only counter to this is that the processes involved are not too dissimilar to refining fossil fuels and developing these sites is an expensive, multi-year undertaking. 

Creating demand pressure through mandates is one thing, but governments will also have to look at how they encourage investment in, and expedite the building of, the facilities needed to meet this demand. Getting that right will be crucial to whether the aviation industry is able to meet its decarbonisation targets through SAF or not.

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