Canada Energy Regulator outlines long-term energy prospects
On 3 December the Canada Energy Regulator (CER) launched its long-term energy outlook focused on the effects of new technologies, infrastructural upgrades, legislation and consumer attitudes on the market over the next two decades.
CER used the current economic outlook, energy prices and current climate and energy policies to develop its report baseline.
The report, Canada’s Energy Future 2019: Energy Supply and Demand Projections to 2040, highlighted that energy use per Canadian will drop by 15% by 2040, but crude oil and natural gas production will rise despite this and the projected decline of fossil fuel consumption.
Crude oil production will grow by 50% between 2018 and 2040, while natural gas production will rise by 30% over the same period. The majority of this will be exported, meaning Canada’s total fossil fuel use by 2040 will grow by less than 1%.
Natural gas use will increase by 18%, but this growth will be offset by diminishing use of other fossil fuel sources. Coal usage, for example, will decline by almost 75%.
To those in step with Canada’s LNG sector, the increase in production over the coming years will come as no surprise. Major projects led by LNG Canada, along with the Trans Mountain, Keystone XL and Line 3 pipeline projects, will enable this growth in the sector.
By 2040, it is expected that wind and solar power generation will account for 10% of Canada’s energy production. Considering the rampant growth in renewable energy capacity in other major markets, this highlights a significant opportunity for investors and project managers to drive this growth further.
Drax advances biomass strategy with Pinnacle acquisition
The Group’s enlarged supply chain will have access to 4.9 million tonnes of operational capacity from 2022. Of this total, 2.9 million tonnes are available for Drax’s self-supply requirements in 2022, which will rise to 3.4 million tonnes in 2027.
The £424 million acquisition of the Canadian biomass pellet producer supports Drax' ambition to be carbon negative by 2030, using bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) and will make a "significant contribution" in the UK cutting emissions by 78% by 2035 (click here).
This summer Drax will undertake maintenance on its CfD(2) biomass unit, including a high-pressure turbine upgrade to reduce maintenance costs and improve thermal efficiency, contributing to lower generation costs for Drax Power Station.
In March, Drax secured Capacity Market agreements for its hydro and pumped storage assets worth around £10 million for delivery October 2024-September 2025.
The limitations on BECCS are not technology but supply, with every gigatonne of CO2 stored per year requiring approximately 30-40 million hectares of BECCS feedstock, according to the Global CCS Institute. Nonetheless, BECCS should be seen as an essential complement to the required, wide-scale deployment of CCS to meet climate change targets, it concludes.