CERAWeek 2011 Review: Gas Solution to Oil Shortfall
CERAWeek 2011 in Review: Natural Gas the Solution to Oil Shortfall
Written by Charles Dewhurst
Recent global events have rocked economies and industries worldwide, with the oil industry taking center stage. From the political turmoil spreading throughout the Middle East to natural disasters crippling Japan’s economy – not to mention the nuclear crisis now facing the country – finding a solution to an oil shortfall is more urgent than ever.
During the recent CERAWeek conference – a global energy industry event presented by Cambridge Energy Research Associates – energy executives discussed these global issues and what they could mean for the future of U.S. dependence on foreign oil. They echoed a familiar sentiment: that reliance upon foreign oil won’t cease during the foreseeable future and that supplies will not last forever. In fact, while oil supplies enjoyed a 50 percent increase during the past 30 years, executives do not anticipate more than minimal supply increases over the next 30. This is particularly problematic as global energy demands are expected to increase by 40 percent over the next 20 years, a prediction reiterated by industry leaders such as BP’s CEO, Robert Dudley. Executives also agree that the affects of a shortage could be seen even earlier than expected given Japan’s renewed need for oil while their nuclear energy program is put on hold.
So what’s the solution? Green energy? It’s certainly a promising long-term solution, but there is agreement among energy executives that it could take at least 30 years to implement a system and the appropriate infrastructure to meet the greater needs of the U.S. population. In the meantime, many industry leaders are looking towards natural gas to sustain the country’s energy requirements and decrease dependence on foreign oil. In an address at CERAWeek, Total CEO, Christophe de Margerie, expressed confidence that the industry as a whole can manage an oil shortfall by increased reliance upon natural gas and specifically noted shale plays as a viable option for addressing near-term U.S. energy needs. Energy executives also believe shale and natural gas could alter geopolitics, reducing the power of Middle Eastern states by downgrading the demand for their oil and aid in complying with climate change regulations.
Why natural gas? While typically the forgotten stepsister of fuel sources, natural gas stands to change the way we think about energy throughout the world, especially thanks to recently discovered shale plays. The perception of natural gas as a waste product in oil fields and its limited use in manufacturing “carbon black” for car tires seems a distant memory. Today the use of natural gas to fuel power plants and heat American homes is the norm. The United States maintains the largest natural gas reserves globally and proponents of the resource are even attempting to push a bill (the “New Alternative Transportation to Give Americans Solutions Act”) through Congress that would create tax incentives for those implementing non-oil-reliant practices.
The Boone Pickens Bill, as it is colloquially known, supports what many industry executives promoted during the CERA conference: increased use of wind, solar and nuclear power, and yes, natural gas. The bill creates tax incentives of $1 billion a year for five years to encourage manufacturers to begin building heavy-duty trucks that will be powered by natural gas instead of diesel. Currently, the U.S. imports 20 million barrels of oil daily, 70 percent of which goes toward transportation fuel, and 23 percent of that goes to fuel the 8 million heavy-duty trucks on the road. The significance: by transitioning to natural gas run trucks, the U.S. has the potential to cut its OPEC imports in half.Looming budget cuts make such tax breaks unlikely in 2011; however this is an example of the kind of action the U.S. energy industry may be able to take in the coming years to bridge the gap between foreign oil dependency and a greener future.
The CERA discussion regarding natural gas was not held without addressing familiar challenges. The industry recognizes the concerns of those living near drilling sites, where hydra-fracking threatens to pollute rivers and underground aquifers. In response to these concerns, industry executives, led by the insights of former Presidents Bush and Clinton, are committed to developing environmentally respectable natural gas harvesting techniques. Once accomplished, the popularity of the resource is expected to increase exponentially and begin a transition from heavy reliance on foreign oil to an energy policy that supports the comprehensive use of sustainable energy sources.
Charles Dewhurst, Natural Resources Industry Practice Leader, BDO USA
Why Transmission & Distribution Utilities Need Digital Twins
As with any new technology, Digital twins can create as many questions as answers. There can be a natural resistance, especially among senior utility executives who are used to the old ways and need a compelling case to invest in new ones.
So is digital twin just a fancy name for modelling? And why do many senior leaders and engineers at power transmission & distribution (T&D) companies have a gnawing feeling they should have one? Ultimately it comes down to one key question: is this a trend worth our time and money?
The short answer is yes, if approached intelligently and accounting for utilities’ specific needs. This is no case of runaway hype or an overwrought name for an underwhelming development – digital twin technology can be genuinely transformational if done right. So here are six reasons why in five years no T&D utility will want to be without a digital twin.
1. Smarter Asset Planning
A digital twin is a real-time digital counterpart of a utility’s real-world grid. A proper digital twin – and not just a static 3D model of some adjacent assets – represents the grid in as much detail as possible, is updated in real-time and can be used to model ‘what if’ scenarios to gauge the effects in real life. It is the repository in which to collect and index all network data, from images, to 3D pointclouds, to past reports and analyses.
With that in mind, an obvious use-case for a digital twin is planning upgrades and expansions. For example, if a developer wants to connect a major solar generation asset, what effect might that have on the grid assets, and will they need upgrading or reinforcement? A seasoned engineer can offer an educated prediction if they are familiar with the local assets, their age and their condition – but with a digital twin they can simply model the scenario on the digital twin and find out.
The decision is more likely to be the right one, the utility is less likely to be blindsided by unforeseen complications, and less time and money need be spent visiting the site and validating information.
As the energy transition accelerates, both transmission and distribution (T&D) utilities will receive more connection requests for anything from solar parks to electric vehicle charging infrastructure, to heat pumps and batteries – and all this on top of normal grid upgrade programs. A well-constructed digital twin may come to be an essential tool to keep up with the pace of change.
2. Improved Inspection and Maintenance
Utilities spend enormous amounts of time and money on asset inspection and maintenance – they have to in order to meet their operational and safety responsibilities. In order to make the task more manageable, most utilities try to prioritise the most critical or fragile parts of the network for inspection, based on past inspection data and engineers’ experience. Many are investigating how to better collect, store and analyze data in order to hone this process, with the ultimate goal of predicting where inspections and maintenance are going to be needed before problems arise.
The digital twin is the platform that contextualises this information. Data is tagged to assets in the model, analytics and AI algorithms are applied and suggested interventions are automatically flagged to the human user, who can understand what and where the problem is thanks to the twin. As new data is collected over time, the process only becomes more effective.
3. More Efficient Vegetation Management
Utilities – especially transmission utilities in areas of high wildfire-risk – are in a constant struggle with nature to keep vegetation in-check that surrounds power lines and other assets. Failure risks outages, damage to assets and even a fire threat. A comprehensive digital twin won’t just incorporate the grid assets – a network of powerlines and pylons isolated on an otherwise blank screen – but the immediate surroundings too. This means local houses, roads, waterways and trees.
If the twin is enriched with vegetation data on factors such as the species, growth rate and health of a tree, then the utility can use it to assess the risk from any given twig or branch neighbouring one of its assets, and prioritise and dispatch vegetation management crews accordingly.
And with expansion planning, inspection and maintenance, the value here is less labor-intensive and more cost-effective decision making and planning – essential in an industry of tight margins and constrained resources. What’s more, the value only rises over time as feedback allows the utility to finesse the program.
4. Automated powerline inspection
Remember though, that to be maximally useful, a digital twin must be kept up to date. A larger utility might blanche at the resources required to not just to map and inspect the network once in order to build the twin, but update that twin at regular intervals.
However, digital twins are also an enabling technology for another technological step-change – automated powerline inspection.
Imagine a fleet of sensor-equipped drones empowered to fly the lines almost constantly, returning (automatically) only to recharge their batteries. Not only would such a set-up be far cheaper to operate than a comparable fleet of human inspectors, it could provide far more detail at far more regular intervals, facilitating all the above benefits of better planning, inspection, maintenance and vegetation management. Human inspectors could be reserved for non-routine interventions that really require their hard-earned expertise.
In this scenario, the digital twin provides he ‘map’ by which the drone can plan a route and navigate itself, in conjunction with its sensors.
5. Improved Emergency Modelling and Faster Response
If the worst happens and emergency strikes, such as a wildfire or natural disaster, digital twins can again prove invaluable. The intricate, detailed understanding of the grid, assets and its surroundings that a digital twin gives is an element of order in a chaotic situation, and can guide the utility and emergency services alike in mounting an informed response.
And once again, the digital twin’s facility for ‘what-if’ scenario testing is especially useful for emergency preparedness. If a hurricane strikes at point X, what will be the effect on assets at point Y? If a downed pylon sparks a fire at point A, what residences are nearby and what does an evacuation plan look like?
6. Easier accommodation of external stakeholders
Finally, a digital twin can make lighter work of engaging with external stakeholders. The world doesn’t stand still, and a once blissfully-isolated powerline may suddenly find itself adjacent to a building site for a new building or road.
As well as planning for connection (see point 1), a digital twin takes the pain out of those processes that require interfacing with external stakeholders, such as maintenance contractors, arborists, trimming crews or local government agencies – the digital twin breaks down the silos between these groups and allows them to work from a single version of the truth – in future it could even be used as part of the bid process for contractors.
These six reasons for why digital twins will be indispensable to power T&D utilities are only the tip of the iceberg; the possibilities are endless given the constant advancement of data collection an analysis technology. No doubt these will invite even more questions – and we relish the challenge of answering them.