Coal Power's Persistence in a Greening World
China and India are at the forefront of coal-power capacity development, contributing to a whopping 86% of all new projects, highlights a report by Global Energy Monitor (GEM).
This insight sheds light on the concentrated state of coal power expansion, pinpointing it to a select few countries worldwide.
The trajectory of coal-fired power plant development has seen a dramatic decline over the past decade.
GEM's recent findings underscore this trend, revealing a drop from 75 countries in 2014 to just 40 by 2024 involved in new coal undertakings.
According to GEM's latest Global Coal Plant Tracker, a staggering 98% of coal power capacity now in the pre-construction and construction stages is limited to 15 countries.
China and India are the main contributors, responsible for the bulk of this development. Despite this concentration of coal power projects and signs that global coal demand might be reaching its peak, the proposals for new coal-fired power stations are still outnumbering cancellations.
In the first half of 2024 alone, the proposal of over 60GW of coal capacity was proposed or advised, a figure significantly higher than the 33.7GW that was shelved or cancelled.
The Paris Agreement, signed in 2015, marked a global commitment to moving away from coal, with 75 countries now having set goals for carbon neutrality by 2050 or sooner. Approximately 100 countries are either already coal-free or have established a coal phase-out timeline for 2040 or earlier.
GEM's data indicates a substantial reduction in coal capacity under development worldwide — a 62% drop compared to ten years ago.
Phase-out not a plan for major coal producers
Despite the global shift away from coal, GEM notes that none of the top 15 countries driving coal plant development have set a deadline for phasing out coal power.
While countries like Indonesia, Vietnam, and South Africa have entered Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) agreements, these plans still accommodate coal power expansion.
China's role in coal development goes beyond its borders, with involvement in projects across Indonesia, Zimbabwe, Laos, Kyrgyzstan and Mongolia. This includes projects proposed post-China's 2021 commitment to halt the construction of new coal plants abroad.
Moreover, countries such as Bangladesh, Pakistan, the Philippines and Turkey continue to pursue coal plant development amid various local and international challenges.
GEM's report offers an in-depth look at the 15 countries leading in coal-power capacity development.
Here are some highlights:
- China remains the titan of global coal power, with a vast network of nearly 3,200 units totalling 1,147GW. Nevertheless, a significant reduction in new coal power approvals was noted in the first half of 2024
- India ranks second in global coal capacity and saw a notable increase in coal plant development proposals in the first half of 2024, outpacing the entirety of 2023
- Indonesia, the top coal exporter globally, is moving to boost both coal production and consumption, with more than 1GW of capacity entering construction in the early part of 2024
The report also dives into coal developments in other countries, outlining the challenges and progress in nations ranging from Bangladesh to Mongolia.
"Despite the global trend away from coal, our data shows that new coal proposals continue to emerge in several countries," a GEM spokesperson said. "This ongoing development, particularly in Asia and Africa, poses significant challenges for global efforts to reduce carbon emissions and mitigate climate change."
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