Copper Crisis: A Roadblock to EV Ambitions?
A recent study highlighted by the International Energy Forum (IEF) paints a stark picture for the future of copper production, crucial for electric vehicle manufacturing.
Researchers suggest current production is far from meeting the needs for the 2050 EV rollout.
According to the research, the world is looking at requiring 115% more copper than it has ever mined before 2018, disregarding any additional needs from energy transitions.
This daunting figure was presented by Dr Lawrence Cathles from Cornell University and Dr Adam Simon of the University of Michigan, putting a spotlight on the hurdles the global auto industry and policy framers face amidst a green transportation shift.
This disconnect between green dreams and the reality of raw material availability is a focal concern.
Projections show an 82% rise in annual copper mining by 2050, hitting a massive 37.1 million tonnes.
However, to power an all-EV global fleet by the mid-century benchmark, an extra 55% bump in copper mining operations is necessary — equating to the establishment of 194 new mines or six each year till 2050, in stark contrast to the "business as usual" prediction of just one new mine annually.
Is there enough copper in the ground?
With an estimated 6.66bn tonnes of global copper resources identified, the issue isn't scarcity but the pace at which this copper can be extracted.
This challenge becomes even more pronounced when aligning it with the ambitious targets set for global development and the EV push.
The time it takes to turn a copper discovery into a functioning mine — an average of 23 years based on recent data — poses a significant barrier.
This lengthy period stands in the way of accelerating copper production to the levels needed for widespread EV adoption.
The study suggests a pivot — moving towards 100% hybrid vehicles by 2035 instead of solely betting on battery EVs. Hybrids, requiring marginally more copper than conventional cars and significantly less than full EVs, present a less resource-intensive path forward. This approach, according to the researchers, could ease the pressure on copper supplies without necessitating substantial upgrades to power grids.
Despite acknowledging its drawbacks, the authors advocate for this hybrid strategy as a more feasible solution to reconciling environmental objectives with the limitations posed by copper resource availability.
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