Can Google’s AI Stop Aircraft Contrails from Warming Earth?
Contrails, the thin white lines seen behind high-flying aircraft, might be a bigger problem for the planet than previously thought.
According to the Royal Meteorological Society, these cloud formations could be more responsible for warming the Earth than the carbon emissions aircraft release.
It says that persistent contrail clouds disturb the atmosphere’s energy balance by preventing heat from escaping back into space.
To address this, Google has joined forces with American Airlines in a six-month experiment to reduce contrail formation.
Their approach uses artificial intelligence to predict where contrails are most likely to form and suggests alternate flight paths to avoid them.
What contrails are and how they trap heat
Contrails, short for condensation trails, are formed when aircraft engines emit water vapour as a by-product of burning fuel.
The hydrogen in the jet fuel reacts with oxygen in the air, producing water vapour.
When aircraft fly through extremely cold and moist air, typically at altitudes where temperatures fall below -40°C, this water vapour condenses and freezes, often attaching to soot particles emitted from the engines.
The result is a thin trail of cloud, sometimes stretching for thousands of metres.
While only one in five planes create these cloud trails, the Royal Meteorological Society says the right combination of moist and cold air makes it more likely for contrails to form.
The society also explains that these contrails can linger, acting like a blanket that traps heat in the atmosphere and blocks the release of thermal radiation from the Earth’s surface.
This trapped heat contributes to global warming, possibly more than the carbon dioxide emitted during the flight itself.
AI to predict contrail formation
Google’s engineers have developed artificial intelligence that processes large volumes of weather, satellite and flight path data to predict where contrails are likely to form.
This information gives pilots and flight planners the chance to change flight altitudes and routes in ways that can prevent contrails from forming.
Max Vogler, Software Engineer at Google, says: “Our predictions are accurate enough to significantly reduce climate impacts.
“In our study with American Airlines, pilots were able to avoid more than half of the contrails by using our flight paths.
“This has also been confirmed by independent researchers.”
During the trial period, 64% of contrails were avoided and the average length of those that still formed was cut by 54%.
The diversions required to avoid contrail-prone areas increased fuel consumption for individual planes by 2%, but across the airline’s full fleet, fuel use rose by just 0.3%.
Google’s Sustainable Travel team, which is based in Zurich, develops and integrates this technology.
Max says “Google's Sustainable Travel team is based in Zurich. Here, we combine the innovative company culture with the European focus on sustainability.
“Our team works to make climate research accessible to airlines and flight planning software.
“We help our industry partners integrate the forecasts into their systems. We also train flight planning employees to effectively adjust flight routes.”
Google Cloud backs geospatial monitoring
Alongside its aviation work, Google is also using AI to support climate action more broadly through its cloud computing services.
Adam Elman, Sustainability Director at Google, said on Linkedin: “Climate action needs action and one of the best parts of my job is working with people who’ve chosen to use their unique skills and passion to drive sustainability forward.
“I recently joined a panel with two such changemakers: Max Vogler, a Google Software engineer based in Zurich and Martina Löfqvist from geospatial AI start-up and Google Cloud, Picterra.
“We spoke about how AI is already helping people, companies and governments to make an immediate impact in the fight against climate change.”
One of Google Cloud’s partners, Picterra, a geospatial artificial intelligence start-up, enables organisations to monitor environmental data using satellite imagery and other geospatial inputs.
This allows companies and governments to track their sustainability performance with accurate and verifiable data.
Pierrick Poulenas, CEO at Picterra, says: "We aim to make geospatial intelligence scalable and accessible, helping organizations globally to understand and act on data-informed insights.
“With Picterra available on Google Cloud Marketplace, organisations can now use their cloud spend on our solutions, simplifying procurement and ease of access.
“By leveraging geospatial intelligence, businesses gain a reliable solution that strengthens compliance, reduces costs and rebuilds trust in sustainability initiatives."
