Can Renewable Energy Help to Keep the 1.5°C Climate Limit?

A study suggests the 1.5°C climate goal is still viable, a conclusion that challenges reports from the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) and other climate models that have suggested the target is no longer reachable.

The analysis from Climate Analytics, a non-profit climate science organisation, hinges on an aggressive phase-out of fossil fuels and a substantial acceleration in the adoption of carbon removal technologies.

The report's release coincides with the lead-up to COP30 in Belém, Brazil, where only half of the 197 signatory countries to the Paris Agreement have submitted their required national climate plans.

Renewable energy and decarbonisation efforts

Climate Analytics suggests that with decisive energy policy shifts global warming could peak at 1.7°C before 2050, subsequently falling to 1.5°C by 2100.

This contrasts sharply with the UNEP's Emissions Gap Report which found that current energy consumption and emission trajectories make exceeding 1.5°C within the next decade a near certainty.

Climate Analytics points to the rapid advancements in renewable energy and battery technology over the last 5 years as a source of hope.

Neil Grant, Senior Expert at Climate Analytics, notes that while the period has been far from perfect in terms of climate action, it has seen renewables and batteries shatter records globally.

Climate Analytics' report advocates for an even faster scaling of renewable energy sources and climate technology, with a particular focus on electrifying the transport, heating and heavy industry sectors.

To keep the 1.5°C target in play, Climate Analytics says global emissions must fall by 20% by 2030 from 2019 levels, followed by an 11% annual reduction throughout the 2030s.

A 30% cut in methane emissions by 2035 would also be necessary.

This path is considerably more ambitious than current commitments.

According to the UNEP, an analysis of all nationally determined contributions (NDCs) submitted ahead of COP30 would only achieve a 10% reduction in global emissions by 2035 making the 1.5°C goal impossible.

The UNEP instead projected warming of 2.3°C to 2.5°C is likely.

The risks of temperature overshoot

The prospect of overshooting the 1.5°C target carries substantial risks, a reality the financial sector is already confronting.

"Big flag for the insurance world: the United Nations Environment Programme's latest report says the planet is now on track for a 2.3-2.5°C temperature rise this century – well past the 1.5°C goal," says Marcos Alvarez, Managing Director of Global Financial Institution Ratings at Morningstar DBRS.

"For insurers, this isn't just a climate headline – it's a direct signal that the "rare" events are becoming more routine.

"Claims from extreme weather will hit more often, premiums may have to rise and capital cushions could get squeezed."

António Guterres, the UN's Secretary-General, has also acknowledged the failure to prevent overshoot in some of his most recent press briefings.

He does, however, emphasise the urgency of limiting the duration and magnitude of global warming.

"The 1.5°C limit of global warming is a red line for humanity. It must be kept within reach," he says.

"Yet, the hard truth is that the world has failed to ensure we remain below 1.5 degrees.

"Science now tells us that a temporary overshoot beyond the 1.5 limit is inevitable.

"We need a paradigm shift to limit this overshoot's magnitude and duration and quickly reduce it."

Scientists have warned that rising temperatures could trigger irreversible tipping points such as the melting of the Greenland ice sheet.

Bill Hare, CEO of Climate Analytics, described overshooting 1.5°C as "a woeful political failure" that will increase damages and tipping point risks.

Diverging national energy policies

Global progress on the energy transition remains uneven. Stocktakes of G20 economies reveal widely different trajectories with only seven countries on a path to achieve net zero emissions by mid-century.

The success of the global effort to phase out fossil fuels depends heavily on the actions of major emitters.

China’s emissions, for example, could peak this year, far ahead of its 2030 target, largely due to its remarkable growth in renewable energy capacity.

In contrast, other large economies like India and Indonesia currently lack sufficient policies to curb their emissions growth in line with climate targets.

Policy decisions in developed nations also have a significant global impact.

According to climate models the withdrawal of the US's net zero target alone added 0.1°C to long-term warming projections and the reversal of its Paris Agreement pledges contributed another 0.1°C.

This highlights the critical role that consistent and ambitious national energy policies play in shaping the world's collective climate future.