Shell: Can Electric HGVs Beat Diesel Trucks on Price?

Electric trucking has long been dismissed as too expensive and too impractical to compete with traditional diesel alternatives. However, a new report from Shell and its subsidiary SBRS suggests that framing misses the point.

The whitepaper argues that the real measure of viability when it comes to modern trucking is total cost of ownership, or TCO, which is the full lifecycle expense of running a vehicle.

Shell's modelling suggests that heavy-duty fleets that use an integrated charging network can register a TCO 10% lower than diesel models. 

Naturally, this is a figure that has prompted keen interest across the logistics and energy sectors, but it is not without caveats, since the savings only materialise under certain conditions.

The upfront problem

In today's market, electric trucks are still considered a luxury, generally costing between 1.6 and 2.3 times more than their diesel counterparts brand new. The second-hand market for these vehicles, meanwhile, is still small, immature and unpredictable.

Then there is the question of infrastructure. Upgrading a depot is often constrained by grid capacity, while the availability of charging points along trucking routes remains a concern in many countries.

When it comes to cost, though, Shell argues that focusing on the upfront purchase alone misses the longer-term savings.

According to the report, electric trucks can be 55% more energy efficient than their diesel equivalents, meaning that there is the opportunity to save on running costs if charging is managed well.

Creating a cost-effective electric fleet

Shell's promise of a 10% TCO advantage rests on three things working well together in unison.

The first is converting depot charging infrastructure into a revenue stream by opening it to third-party operators when the fleet's own vehicles are on the road.

Shell is no stranger to this kind of model. Some of its depots are classified as "semi-public", where depot owners allow access during low-utilisation periods. Others fall into the category of "eDepot+", which gives access to approved subcontractors and logistics partners.

Interestingly, the whitepaper claims that revenue from shared charging sessions can offset, and in some cases exceed, a fleet's own energy costs.

The second thing that Shell's cost-effective ideal rests on is energy cost optimisation at the depot, where Shell's model assumes 75% of charging takes place.

Smart charging schedules sessions during off-peak periods to avoid high-tariff windows, and the company's Charge Point Management System automates the process.

Combined with tailored energy contracts and on-site renewable generation, the report suggests depot energy costs can be reduced by up to 30%.

The third thing Shell's model requires is access to network-level pricing and market incentives, including toll exemptions in markets such as Germany, where electric trucks are exempt from the MAUT heavy-duty road toll until at least 2031.

Shell's modelling suggests a truck covering 116,000 kilometres per year with 75% of mileage on toll roads could save more than €150,000 (US$173,000) over five years under that scheme.

The UK picture

The economics play out differently depending on the market.

Germany benefits from the MAUT exemption, while the Netherlands combines favourable tolling policy with Energy Recognition Credits – which Shell claims on behalf of customers – contributing more than €76,000 (US$88,000) over five years in the modelled scenario.

The UK is a harder case. Without kilometre-based tolling advantages, Shell says that battery-electric vehicle costs remain far higher than diesel in the absence of an integrated charging system.

For UK fleets, shared charging revenue becomes the primary mechanism for closing that gap rather than a supplementary one, and whether the semi-public demand exists at sufficient scale to deliver that revenue in practice is a question the report does not fully resolve.

Acting sooner rather than later

Shell's report makes a direct case for early adoption.

From 2027, the EU's Emissions Trading System for Buildings and Road Transport will require fuel suppliers to purchase carbon allowances for road transport, with increased costs expected to be passed on to operators.

Battery-electric trucks, producing zero tailpipe emissions, fall outside that scheme's scope.

The report also argues that early movers stand to benefit more from Shell's network economics as the number of shared charging sessions grows — an incentive structure that weakens the longer a fleet waits.

"Electric trucking is no longer a cost barrier or a future consideration," the company says. "Under the right conditions, it's already a competitive advantage."

Whether this claim holds across the range of fleet sizes, routes and energy contexts that define the real UK and European freight market is a question operators will need to test against their own numbers – something Shell's TCO calculator, linked in the report, invites them to do.