McKinsey: Heat Pumps Essential for Decarbonising Buildings

The adoption of heat pump technology is crucial for decarbonising the built environment, according to McKinsey's The Hard Stuff: Navigating the Physical Realities of the Energy Transition report.

The study highlights that only about 10% of the required deployment of low-emissions technologies by 2050 has been achieved in most areas.

Buildings' heating and cooling systems are responsible for 75% of emissions, with on-site fossil fuel combustion, primarily through gas boilers, generating the majority

McKinsey identifies heat pumps as the key technology for the energy transition.
Currently, there are 200 million units installed globally, but this number needs to increase nine-fold to 1.8 billion by 2050 to meet climate targets.

McKinsey says: "The share of electrically-heated households must rise from 15% to 65% by 2050. This represents a significant shift in building services infrastructure."

The consultancy's report explains heat pump functionality, noting that air-source heat pumps extract heat from outside air, while ground-source systems draw heat from underground.

Heat pump efficiency is measured by the coefficient of performance (COP), typically ranging from two to five. McKinsey's analysis reveals that regions with winter temperatures below freezing consume 60% of residential heating energy, despite housing only 40% of the population.

The report also identifies performance challenges in cold climates, with 1.2 billion people living in regions experiencing minimum temperatures below minus 10°C.

McKinsey projects that full building heat electrification would increase peak power demand to 1.7 times current levels, with some cold regions potentially seeing demand triple.

The heat pump rollout

The report highlights efficiency challenges for heat pumps in cold regions.

Standard air-source heat pumps show decreased performance below freezing, potentially falling short of heating needs.

McKinsey reports that 1.2 billion people, or 15% of the global population, reside in areas with minimum temperatures below -10°C, necessitating specialised cold-climate heat pump systems.

To address this, the US Department of Energy has initiated programmes to enhance heat pump efficiency.

Its Cold Climate Heat Pump Technology Challenge aims for operational effectiveness at -26°C.

While ground-source heat pumps maintain efficiency at low temperatures, they require more space, specialised installation and longer setup times compared to air-source units.

An action plan for heat pump adoption

McKinsey proposes a four-point action plan to accelerate heat pump adoption:

• Continuing to innovate heat pump technology: Improving COP at lower temperatures could significantly reduce power needs in cold climates
• Creating efficiency and flexibility in demand management: More-efficient buildings, improved insulation and smart thermostats could help manage heating demand, potentially reducing peak load by nearly 40%
• Deploying alternative low-emissions heating solutions: Options like district heating and solar thermal could meet some demand, though these have geographical limitations
• Backing up heat pumps with dual-fuel systems: Using dual-fuel systems for the coldest days would lower electricity requirements while still reducing emissions compared to existing fossil-fuel furnaces.

This comprehensive approach aims to address the challenges of heat pump adoption and accelerate the transition to more sustainable heating systems in the built environment.

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