U.S International Energy Agency predicts 48% growth in world energy consumption by 2040
The EIA projects that there will be a 48% increase in world energy consumption from 2012 (backdated) to the year 2040.
Its International Energy Outlook 2016 (IEO2016) report looked at countries with fast economic growth, particularly in Asia. The two countries that are predicted to develop at an accelerated rate and put the most strain on global resources are India and China; India due to its sudden urbanisation and China for its heavy reliance on manufacturing.
Together, India and China account for more than half the world’s predicted total increase in the period 2012-2040. The list of countries of high consumption also included the United States and Canada. Whilst much of the IEO2016 data was collected before the U.S Clean Power Plan (CPP) and is unlikely to include any potential effects of new CPP regulations, the figures would still remain very high.
More recently, the World Energy Outlook 2017 forecasts a growth in global demand for energy, increasing by 30%. Whilst this is “the equivalent of adding another China and India to today’s global demand”, the percentage is half of what was previously predicted thanks to a new drive for energy efficiency.
Energy efficient initiatives have been pushed by the EU, with a focus on energy efficient buildings, providing a platform for investment, as well as cogeneration. But high consumption still continues to be a big threat. Even if all targets for the Paris Agreement were met, the planet would still be on track for 3°C of warming, which is still a catastrophic number.
Energy consumption needs to be looked at on a global scale, and high consuming countries will need to take necessary measures to minimise environmental impact.
This infographic below gives a clear view or energy consumption vs. energy production around the world. Looking at the top 10 countries with high levels of consumption per capita, and the top 10 countries with high energy generation per capita.
The data from the infographic reveals that some of the highest producing nations are also the highest producing. With Trinidad and Tobago, Iceland, Qatar, Luxembourg, United Arab Emirates, Canada, Oman, United States, Saudi Arabia and Bahrain listed as the biggest consumers based on MWh per capita. Out of those nations, Qatar, Trinidad and Tobago, United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Oman and Bahrain are also the biggest generators.
Furthermore, the International Energy Outlook 2016 also raised concerns about the effects of fossil fuels on the environment, problems with energy security, and world oil prices. Even though non fossil fuels are expected to grow faster than fossil fuels in the energy sector, fossil fuel consumption will account for more than three quarters of the globe’s total in 2040.
Trafigura and Yara International explore clean ammonia usage
Reducing shipping emissions is a vital component of the fight against global climate change, yet Greenhouse Gas emissions from the global maritime sector are increasing - and at odds with the IMO's strategy to cut absolute emissions by at least 50% by 2050.
How more than 70,000 ships can decrease their reliance on carbon-based sources is one of transport's most pressing decarbonisation challenges.
Yara and Trafigura intend to collaborate on initiatives that will establish themselves in the clean ammonia value chain. Under the MoU announced today, Trafigura and Yara intend to work together in the following areas:
- The supply of clean ammonia by Yara to Trafigura Group companies
- Exploration of joint R&D initiatives for clean ammonia application as a marine fuel
- Development of new clean ammonia assets including marine fuel infrastructure and market opportunities
Magnus Krogh Ankarstrand, President of Yara Clean Ammonia, said the agreement is a good example of cross-industry collaboration to develop and promote zero-emission fuel in the form of clean ammonia for the shipping industry. "Building clean ammonia value chains is critical to facilitate the transition to zero emission fuels by enabling the hydrogen economy – not least within trade and distribution where both Yara and Trafigura have leading capabilities. Demand and supply of clean ammonia need to be developed in tandem," he said.
There is a growing consensus that hydrogen-based fuels will ultimately be the shipping fuels of the future, but clear and comprehensive regulation is essential, according to Jose Maria Larocca, Executive Director and Co-Head of Oil Trading for Trafigura.
Ammonia has a number of properties that require "further investigation," according to Wartsila. "It ignites and burns poorly compared to other fuels and is toxic and corrosive, making safe handling and storage important. Burning ammonia could also lead to higher NOx emissions unless controlled either by aftertreatment or by optimising the combustion process," it notes.
Trafigura has co-sponsored the R&D of MAN Energy Solutions’ ammonia-fuelled engine for maritime vessels, has performed in-depth studies of transport fuels with reduced greenhouse gas emissions, and has published a white paper on the need for a global carbon levy for shipping fuels to be introduced by International Maritime Organization.
Oslo-based Yara produces roughly 8.5 million tonnes of ammonia annually and employs a fleet of 11 ammonia carriers, including 5 fully owned ships, and owns 18 marine ammonia terminals with 580 kt of storage capacity – enabling it to produce and deliver ammonia across the globe.
It recently established a new clean ammonia unit to capture growth opportunities in emission-free fuel for shipping and power, carbon-free fertilizer and ammonia for industrial applications.