Is Extreme Weather Driving Global Energy Demand for Cooling?
"Since systematic scientific assessments began in the 1970s, the influence of human activity on the warming of the climate system has evolved from theory to established fact," says the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
The increase in temperature and humidity is pushing one dominant response: air conditioning (AC).
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reports that almost 90% of US households had AC in 2020.
By contrast, the Building Service Research and Intelligence Association (BSRIA) predicts that around 5% of UK homes had cooling solutions in 2017 and 2020.
Heat risk and energy demand in Europe
Europe is warming faster than any other continent according to the European Environment Agency (EEA).
The agency warns that climate change threatens energy security, food systems, ecosystems, infrastructure, water resources, financial stability and health.
Extreme weather events like heatwaves, drought, wildfires and flooding are set to worsen in Europe even under “optimistic global warming scenarios” states the EAA.
“Our new analysis shows that Europe faces urgent climate risks that are growing faster than our societal preparedness,” says Leena Ylä-Mononen, EEA Executive Director.
“To ensure the resilience of our societies, European and national policymakers must act now to reduce climate risks both by rapid emission cuts and by strong adaptation policies and actions."
In the UK, demand for home cooling is rising sharply.
Rightmove data shows:
Searches for homes for sale with AC have increased by 234% in a year
Rental searches for AC-equipped homes are up 74% compared to 2021
On 19 July, the UK’s hottest recorded day, AC-related searches rose 280% for buyers and 180% for renters year-on-year
Globally, 3.6 billion people are highly vulnerable to climate change impacts.
The Global Commission on Adaptation estimates that US$1.8tn invested in early warning systems, climate-resilient infrastructure, water management and other measures could generate US$7.1tn in avoided costs and benefits.
UNEP’s Adaptation Gap Report 2023 warns that adaptation costs for developing countries could reach US$387bn annually by 2030, while climate adaptation finance in 2022 totalled only US$32.4bn.
In 2023, António Guterres, Secretary-General of the United Nations, said: “Storms, fires, floods, drought and extreme temperatures are becoming more frequent and more ferocious, and they’re on course to get far worse.
"Lives and livelihoods are being lost and destroyed, with the vulnerable suffering the most.
"Adaptation plans must be transformed into investment plans, with new collaborative models that bring together governments, funders, development partners and civil society.”
AC and emissions in the US
The US experiences more extreme climate conditions than Europe and its building stock is designed to handle seasonal shifts.
According to the US Department of Energy (USDE), 88% of American homes have AC, with 66% using central systems.
AC accounts for roughly 12% of household electricity consumption annually, costing homeowners about US$29bn.
The USDE also states that AC use emits more than 100 million tonnes of CO₂ each year.
Cooling, infrastructure and new technology
Europe’s low AC penetration reflects not only its historically milder climate but also its grid capacity.
National energy grids are already under pressure from modern consumption and the growing demand for renewable energy integration.
Large-scale AC adoption could strain existing infrastructure unless paired with efficiency upgrades and decentralised clean power.
Climate adaptation also depends on better forecasting and early warning systems.
The UK Met Office is enhancing its century-old Shipping Forecast with AI, advanced satellite data and real-time visuals.
"We are investing in next-generation capabilities such as advanced satellite data, innovative AI models and better ways to share vital safety information with people at sea,” says James Shapland, Head of Regulated Transport Services at the Met Office.
AI platforms like Google’s GraphCast, ECMWF’s AIFS and Microsoft’s Aurora are already surpassing traditional forecasting methods.
Professor Kirstine Dale, Chief AI Officer at the Met Office, added: "I think we'll have traditional models running alongside AI models so that we are drawing on their combined strengths to enable hyper-localised accurate forecasts, delivered fast, when you need them."
In the residential energy sector, Panasonic Heating & Cooling Solutions reports that 81% of installed AC units in 10 European countries are now used either solely for heating or for both heating and cooling.
Products like Panasonic’s Aquarea air-to-water heat pumps provide year-round efficiency for homes and workplaces.
LG AC Technologies offers ducted and duct-free residential and commercial systems, as well as VRF, HVRF and dedicated outdoor air systems for efficient climate control in varied buildings.
In industrial applications, Hitachi Energy supplies pure water cooling systems for power transmission and manufacturing.
These use water as the cooling medium and can be configured for tap, glycol or pure water, depending on the requirement.
