How Much Energy will Data Centres Need in the Future?
The efficiency and environmental footprint of data centres have become focal points for the energy sector, especially as these facilities face an upswing in energy demands.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects that there will be a substantial increase in these facilities' energy demand in coming years, especially with the rise of AI.
It is projected that both data centres and data transmission networks are responsible for approximately 1-1.5% of global electricity usage.
However, while some reports highlight increased energy efficiency and efforts to reduce carbon footprints, others reveal significant underreporting of emissions and a growing overall environmental impact.
Are headline claims a reality?
Globally, data centres consume an estimated 460 TWh of electricity and could jump to around 1,000 TWh in the near future.
It is also estimated that data centres produce around 3% of global carbon footprint when it comes to gas emissions: a similar amount as the aviation industry.
Leading tech firms have set ambitious goals to curb emissions, but analysis from the Guardian analysis predicts data centre emissions are more likely 662% higher than big tech claims, as the surge in demand driven by AI pushes energy consumption even higher.
Between 2020 and 2022, the analysis finds that actual emissions from data centres owned by Google, Microsoft, Meta and Apple were likely around 7.62 times greater than what has been officially reported, with the discrepancy highlighting the hidden environmental costs associated with powering the digital revolution.
“This is a fast-moving space and these numbers come with uncertainty,” Microsoft’s Senior Director of Sustainability, Dr Amy Luers, says.
“Anchoring discussions in trusted sources like the IEA helps cut through the noise and support more informed dialogue.”
However, Amy points out that this should not mean stats from bodies like the IEA should be the only form of truth.
She adds: “But using estimates from the IEA and similar trusted organisations as benchmarks — especially when analysts and media use them to understand and explain why a figure is higher or lower — can help strengthen the dialogue.
“Let’s keep working to cite data, state assumptions and benchmark wherever possible.”
The biggest emitters
Pinpointing a single largest emitter is no easy task thanks to varying reporting methods and data availability, as well as the accountability of direct and indirect emissions.
Due to its scale, Amazon Web Services (AWS) could be one of the biggest.
Raw emissions data for AWS data centres specifically are not publicly set out by Amazon in its sustainability reports.
However, the 2024 instalment says that while Amazon’s absolute carbon emissions rose from 64.38 million MTCO₂e in 2023 to 68.25MTCO₂e in 2024, the carbon intensity of its business declined, with emissions per dollar of gross merchandise sales falling from 75.6g CO₂e to 72.6g CO₂e.
AWS data centres are however known for their strong operational efficiency, with a global Power Usage Effectiveness (PUE) of 1.15 in 2024, outperforming the public cloud industry average PUE of 1.25.
Many of these tech companies have made sustainability commitments.
Amazon reached a goal to match 100% of the electricity consumed by its global operations with renewable energy by 2030 seven years ahead of schedule.
It also achieved a 3% reduction in absolute carbon emissions and a 13% decrease in carbon intensity.
Google, for example, aims for 24/7 carbon-free energy for its data centres and offices by the end of the decade and, in the same timeframe, Microsoft has committed to becoming carbon negative, removing all the carbon it has emitted since it was founded.
The company has ended its mass purchase of cheap carbon offsets and thus stopped claiming that its operations are carbon neutral, which it had claimed to have been since 2007. It is now working to reach net-zero carbon emissions by 2030.
In the introduction to the report, Google Chief Sustainability Officer Kate Brandt and Benedict Gomes, SVP, Learning & Sustainability, say: ”In spite of the progress we are making, we face significant challenges that we’re actively working through.
“In 2023, our total GHG emissions increased 13% year-over-year, primarily driven by increased data centre energy consumption and supply chain emissions.”
“A sustainable future requires systems-level change, strong government policies and new technologies. We’re committed to collaboration and playing our part, every step of the way.”
The future of data centre and AI emissions
AI-optimised data centres alone are expected to quadruple their electricity consumption, with global emissions from these facilities set to surge from 200 million tonnes today to 600 million tonnes annually by 2030 according to Morgan Stanley.
Construction of new data centres to meet AI demand will further increase embodied carbon, making emissions reduction even more difficult.
Ultimately, aggressive procurement of renewables and stronger policy interventions will be essential to decouple data centre growth from emissions and to align AI-enabled digital expansion with net-zero goals.
As Brad Smith, Microsoft’s Vice Chair and President, said in its sustainability report: “We believe data transparency is critical to driving accountability and progress on climate.”
