The Gas Demand Rollercoaster: What is Dunkelflaute?

Share
When wind and solar power isn't generated, this has a knock-on effect on gas demand
Meaning dark wind lull, Dunkelflaute describes weather that means renewable energy cannot be generated. But how is this impacting the volatility of demand?

When the wind blows, turbines can turn it into wind energy.

And when the sun shines, solar panels can create energy from the sun’s rays.

But what happens when weather conditions mean renewable energy cannot be generated?

This triggers a power system phenomenon called Dunkelflaute — a period of no wind or solar generation. 

Youtube Placeholder

Dunkelflaute has been observed increasingly across Europe thanks to spates of cold weather — typically occurring during winter months and can last for several days or even weeks.

Dunkelflaute explained

As explained in Oxford Institute for Energy Studies’ paper Dunkelflaute: Driving Europe Gas Demand Volatility, written by Anouk Honoré and Jack Sharples, Dunkelflaute has a knock-on impact when it comes into effect.

The paper says: “As renewable generation grows its share of European power generation, the impact of these episodes has been to drive up the volatility of gas demand and influence prices — particularly at times of tightness in the market — when gas-fired power is despatched to fill that intermittency gap, even though the total gas demand in power continues to fall as the renewables build-out continues."

But why does this happen?

The report highlights gas-electric coordination. Because Dunkelflaute often occurs in cold snaps, and Europe is a winter peaking system, the gas system is under strain to meet both heat and power swings and spikes.

It also says that because the combination of improved renewables availability – including the likes of hydro, wind and solar — is coupled with much higher nuclear generation, fossil fuels have been pushed down the merit order most of the time, meaning gas plants are moving further away from providing baseload power and playing more of a back-up role.

The share of electricity generation by sources and electricity demand in EU27 + UK. Credit: A. Honoré

“Gas demand in Europe displays strong seasonality and sudden and short-term spikes are normal during winter,” the report states.

“But the growth of wind generation brings another layer of uncertainty, with additional peaks in gas demand, for which size and duration are harder to predict.” 

One clear finding is that although the combination of Dunkelflaute and cold temperatures can influence gas prices, there is no clear correlation between total gas demand and prices.

The report says: “With limited short-term flexibility on the demand side  — for now, this should improve in the future — flexible and rapidly available gas supply will be increasingly crucial to balance the system in Europe.”

What are the key messages of the Dunkelflaute report?

Renewables’ intermittent nature means that Europe is relying on gas-fired power plants to keep energy flowing when not generated by greener alternatives.

Dunkelflaute events often coincide with colder temperatures, amplifying gas demand due to increased heating needs.

With this in mind, there are four key takeaways from Oxford Institute for Energy Studies’ paper.

They are:

  • Gas-fired power plants remain the primary source of flexibility in Europe’s power system: Fluctuations in wind generation inevitably lead to increased reliance on gas-fired power plants
  • The growing share of wind power in the energy mix creates unpredictable peaks in gas demand: These spikes are difficult to forecast in terms of both magnitude and duration
  • The power sector’s relationship with gas demand has evolved: Previously a source of short-term flexibility, gas use for power generation has become more volatile and less predictable — and has also become more resilient to high gas prices 
  • With reduced flexibility on the demand side, the European market increasingly requires flexibility when it comes to supply: In 2024, this flexibility was primarily provided by gas storage facilities and liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports.

“We need more clean firm generation, storage, grid infrastructure, demand response, et cetera, to tame Dunkelflaute — and today’s gas market has risen to the challenge,” says Brian Marrs, Senior Director, Energy Markets at Microsoft.

Brian Marrs, Senior Director for Energy Markets at Microsoft

“But gas-electric planning must continue to embrace seasonal gas flexibility to match weather-driven seasonality in GWs of generation. I.e. the power system needs to re-size to the weather.” 

What the industry thinks of Dunkelflaute

“When there is no wind, we get high electricity prices with this failed electricity system,” Ebba Busch, Deputy Prime Minister of Sweden, Minister for Energy and the Minister for Business and Industry, says.

“Germany’s energy system isn’t right.

Ebba Busch, Minister for Energy, Business and Industry and Deputy Prime Minister of Sweden. Credit: Ninni Andersson/Government Offices of Sweden

“It is a result of decommissioned nuclear power. When it’s not windy, we get high electricity prices.”

She argues that if Germany was able to produce more electricity for the European network, prices would lower for all.

Amund Vik, Senior Advisor to Eurasia Group, adds on the subject: “The European energy system needs integration to be secure, as you do the energy transition.” 

Gerald Kaendler, Director Asset Management at Amprion says: “Dunkelflaute is the worst case scenario for a renewables-based power system. 

“There will be times when not enough wind and solar power is available.”


Explore the latest edition of Energy Digital Magazine and be part of the conversation at our global conference series, Sustainability LIVE.

Discover all our upcoming events and secure your tickets today.


Energy Digital is a BizClik brand

Share

Featured Articles

Is AI Data Centre Thirst Contributing to Mass Energy Waste?

Data centres supporting AI boom, they face crucial water use challenges, pushing for new sustainable cooling solutions

How Could the EU Omnibus Impact Energy's Sustainable Future?

Businesses & politicians voice concerns for sustainability over the European Commission’s upcoming omnibus package & its regulation simplification aims

Why is Equinor Halving Renewables Spend & Growing Oil & Gas?

Equinor is halving its investment in renewable energy over the next two years in favour of increasing oil and gas production

Could Trump's Tariffs Trump's Spark an Energy Trade War?

Sustainability

Q&A with Michael Deighton, SVP Operations at Kent

Sustainability

Chevron and GE Vernova: Tackling AI's Energy Challenges

Technology & AI