‘Take the Oil’: Why is Trump Escalating Conflict in Iran?
After appearing to climb down from his threats to “obliterate” Iran’s energy resources last week, US President Donald Trump has once again escalated tensions across the Middle East with fresh proclamations on the ongoing war.
The President told the Financial Times on 29 March that his preferred outcome for the war would be to seize Iran’s oil assets, including potentially taking control of Kharg Island, the Islamic Republic's primary crude export hub.
“My favourite thing is to take the oil in Iran, but some stupid people back in the US say: 'Why are you doing that?'” he said.
“Maybe we take Kharg Island, maybe we don't. We have a lot of options,” he added.
Since the US and Israel kickstarted the conflict on 28 February, the Trump administration’s rationale for going to war has been confused, with several members of the cabinet contradicting one another and the President.
This latest statement, however, represents arguably the most candid articulation yet of Washington's resource ambitions in the Middle East.
Trump’s proclamation was published just as 2,500 US marines arrived in the Middle East. The statements have sent an already fragile energy market into a fresh crisis.
The reaction of the markets
The price of Brent crude climbed past US$116 per barrel this morning.
The spike followed hot on the heels of Trump’s inflammatory comments, though the entry of Yemen's Houthi forces into the war have also contributed to market anxiety.
The potential for a US ground offensive has sparked concerns yet further.
The single greatest reason for the skyrocketing price of oil and gas, however, remains the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Despite Trump’s continued threats and the Iranian Government’s claim that “non-hostile” ships will be allowed to pass safely through the waterway, many logistics firms dare not risk sending their vessels through.
The commander that had been overseeing Iran's effort to shut the strait, IRGC Navy Rear Admiral Alireza Tangsiri, was killed by an Israeli airstrike on 26 March, though Iran’s capacity to maintain the blockade without him is unclear.
Has Trump contributed to the gradual restart of shipping?
In his discussion with the Financial Times, Trump claimed that Iran had agreed to allow 20 oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz.
“They gave us 10 [ships through the strait]. Now they're giving 20,” he said, attributing the authorisation to Iranian Parliamentary Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf.
"He's the one who authorised the ships to me,” Trump continued.
“Remember I said they're giving me a present? And everyone said: 'What's the present? Bullshit.' When they heard about that they kept their mouth shut and the negotiations are going very well."
Tehran told a different story. Esmaeil Baqaei, a spokesperson for Iran’s Foreign Ministry, said that no direct negotiations had taken place. Instead, he claimed that Iran was only receiving messages passed through intermediaries, which he described as conveying "excessive and unreasonable requests".
Rising diplomatic tensions
In an effort to deescalate the situation, Pakistan is attempting to broker talks between Washington and Tehran.
Islamabad is currently preparing to host multilateral discussions on the unfolding conflict, which are set to involve Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Egypt.
Trump, meanwhile, has said that Iran's new leadership (following the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in an Israeli airstrike on 28 February) had been "very reasonable".
Regardless of the veracity of these claims, the diplomatic picture is muddied by ongoing Israeli attacks across Tehran, strikes on Iran's electricity infrastructure and fresh bombardment of Beirut's southern suburbs, where smoke was seen rising above largely deserted residential streets on Monday morning.
Israel’s invasion of Lebanon has displaced more than one million people. With the conflict showing no signs of slowing, the chances of a diplomatic resolution seem slim.
Spain added a further diplomatic wrinkle to the morass by closing its airspace to US military aircraft involved in the Iran campaign, forcing American planes to reroute across Europe. Spain’s Prime Minister, Pedro Sánchez, has been outspoken in his criticism of the US, calling the war "illegal".
For now, the gap between Washington's stated desire for a deal and the reality on the ground – crude prices surging, infrastructure burning and a US President openly musing about seizing a sovereign nation's oil fields – appears wider than ever.
